Each winter, millions of Americans gather around their televisions for Super Bowl Sunday. This is the championship game of the National Football League (NFL).
NFL teams compete throughout the fall for the honor of being one of the top two teams who get to play in the biggest game of the year.
Though you may not find it listed on any calendar, Super Bowl Sunday is considered an unofficial holiday in the United States. In fact, after Thanksgiving, more food is eaten on this day than any other day of the year.
Most years the Big game is the most watched program on television in America and the second most watched program worldwide. In February 2015, the Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots played in the championship game. More than 168 million people tuned in, making it the most viewed program in history in the U.S.
Due to the high number of viewers, companies interested in buying commercial airtime pay a high price. In fact, if advertisers want to buy commercial time during the Super Bowl, they can expect to pay more than they would at any other time of the year.
The cost of a 30 second Super Bowl commercial was $37,500 in 1967. By 1994, the cost for the same 30 seconds of airtime was $900,000.
By 2015, the price had risen to approximately $4.5 million. That’s about $150,000 for every second!
According to npr.org 31.4 Million Americans are expected to bet 7.6 Billion dollars on the Super Bowl. So if you are going to make a bet this year, Lets look at the teams with a +1500 or longer price tag and determining if they are worth a few of your hard earned dollars. Sprinkling on a few different long shots can pay dividends and create some excellent hedging opportunities down the line. Let’s get into it:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: +2000
According to docsports.com In short, Tom Brady is indeed worth a bet. The Buccaneers are a lot more than just Tom Brady, and they have all the pieces needed to compete against the league’s best. On the defensive side of the ball, they are good but not great. An 8th-ranked defense is certainly nothing to be concerned about, but there have been cracks growing for several weeks. They have given up 10 or more 4th quarter points in each of their last 3 games, which is not a good trend heading into the postseason. Additionally, the only win against a playoff team came in Week 1 over the Cowboys, and they are just 2-6 vs. teams still alive in the playoff race. The ability to beat up bad teams is something that has come naturally for Brady throughout his career, but fortunately he is also dominant when it matters most. Brady has the weapons he needs to succeed on offense, and the defense he needs to get the occasional big stop or short field. Mike Evans has more than 1,000 receiving yards for the 9th straight time to start his career, and the run game featuring Leonard Fournette is formidable. A +2000 price tag on the undisputed GOAT cannot be turned down at this stage of the season.LA Chargers: +2200
Justin Herbert and the LA Chargers continue to get disrespected in the futures market, and they are absolutely worth a bet at +2200. Herbert is 3rd in the league in passing yards and has led a consistent LA offense all season long. Their run game certainly has room for improvement. However, as long as the Chargers defense can keep games close, Herbert will feel confident he can lead some big-time postseason comebacks. They will slot into the 5th or 6th seed, meaning there will be no home playoff games on the horizon. The Chargers have won 4 straight games heading into their season finale against the Broncos and will be brimming with confidence. Their 18th ranked defense will have to step up when it matters most, but there’s definitely worse bets to make than taking a shot on the Chargers
Minnesota Vikings: +2800
The Minnesota Vikings sit at 12-4, having clinched the NFC North almost a month ago. The Number 1 seed in the NFC is still up for grabs, and Minnesota has been fighting to catch the Eagles. The storyline of the Vikings has been dominated by one fact. They are 11-0 in one-possession games, and are therefore a fraud. I know it’s surprising to see a team with a -19 point differential sitting 8 games above .500, but that doesn’t mean the Vikings don’t deserve to be here. Kirk Cousins has got the job done when it matters most and led countless game-winning 4th quarter drives this year. They have certainly got lucky in a couple games, but they have also put themselves in positions to win. Unfortunately, I still can’t justify a bet on them. Cousins has choked in primetime contests throughout his career, and I won’t be betting on him to lead his team to 4 straight postseason victories. If the Vikings can win their first playoff game, I’d reconsider a futures bet, but as of now, it’s a pass.
Green Bay Packers: +2800
In dramatic fashion, the Packers have taken control of their postseason fate and will be in with a win over Detroit on SNF. All hope was lost when the Packers were 4-8, but Aaron Rodgers insisted the team must refuse to give up until they were mathematically eliminated. The team has since ripped off 4 straight wins, improving to 8-8 in the process. The Packers possess one of the deadliest running back combos in Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. The two backs fill in for each other on an off night, and one of the two often finds the end zone. The versatility in the running back room, combined with a reliable Aaron Rodgers, makes this Green Bay team effective. Unfortunately, I can’t bet on the Packers to continue their fairytale run into January. They own the 14th-ranked offense and 17th-ranked defense, which is not a recipe for the Lombardi Trophy. Of course, players may step up when the lights are brightest, but I’m not expecting a generally mediocre Packers team to go on a run. It’s a pass from me.
Baltimore Ravens +3300
The Ravens are a very intriguing team to lay a bet on at this stage of the season. Star QB Lamar Jackson hasn’t played in over a month, and the Ravens are simply not the same team without him. Jackson has the running ability and in-game awareness to salvage lost plays and pick up first downs. Outside of Jackson, the rest of the offense is abysmal. Receivers like Sammy Watkins, DeSean Jackson, and Devin Duvernay are not Super Bowl quality, while JK Dobbins is not going to turn any heads as a running back. Despite this, the Ravens have what they need to succeed. A star QB and a solid defense are the two most important pieces of a championship team, and the Ravens certainly fit the bill. They have held their opponents to 16 of fewer points in each of their last 5 games, going 3-2 in Jackson’s absence. From a betting perspective, I have to hold off on the Ravens at this moment. Jackson is still questionable to return before the playoffs and may even miss the opening round of postseason action. IF Jackson is confirmed to be back, I’d happily grab the Ravens at +3300, but as of now that price is not high enough for a Tyler Huntley-led team.
Miami Dolphins: +6600
I was high on the Dolphins at the start of the season, but Tua Tagovailoa has been concussed over and over again, and the Dolphins have struggled without him. I’ve been advocating that the Dolphins are a legitimate title threat but have lost hope. Tagovailoa’s concussion has been handled very poorly, and he shouldn’t be playing for the rest of the season. I have serious doubts that he can stay healthy for 4 straight playoff games and will therefore be passing on the Dolphins moving forward. Simply put, a 27th ranked defense and a concussed quarterback is not where I’ll be placing bets.
